Sheraton: 78% correlation between MyTelescope brand search Index and revenue
For you—as a CFO, CEO, or Strategic BI lead—this means better:
Allocation. Put next month’s money where market interest is rising; pause where it’s flat.
Timing. Launch offers and rotate creative into tailwinds, not headwinds.
Forecasting. Set near-term expectations (1–3 months) by blending today’s market interest with seasonality.
Governance. Defend budgets with an external, auditable signal—not opinions.
Risk oversight. Catch month-on-month drops in branded interest early to investigate competition, distribution, or PR issues.
Why this matters
Executives don’t lack dashboards; they lack an external signal that moves before the P&L. Monthly branded search behaviour provides that signal: it’s external, timely, and comparable across brands and markets.
How we tested
We asked whether monthly movements in branded search interest track competitive performance in hotels.
Inputs: a normalized Market Interest Index (monthly branded searches) and STR RevPAR Index (RGI) versus the comp set, Sweden, 2020–2022.
Method: align the two monthly series and compute a Pearson correlation; inspect 0–3 month leads/lags and light seasonality controls.
Result: a strong, statistically significant association, r(14) = 0.78. In plain terms: when market interest rises, competitive revenue performance (RGI) tends to rise as well.
(If STR/CoStar access is unavailable, substitute monthly revenue share or bookings share from your BI stack.)
Decisions this enables
Capital allocation: Reallocate toward markets where interest is accelerating; pause where it is flat.
Timing & mix: Schedule offers and rotate creative into months with rising interest; use flat periods to test price/pack or channel.
Comp-set strategy: Track whether interest gains translate into MPI/ARI/RGI improvements and adjust by city/segment.
Forecasting: Blend the current month’s index with seasonality to set expectations for the next 1–3 months.
Risk monitoring: Month-on-month drops in branded interest can flag competitive moves, distribution issues, or PR events ahead of the monthly close.
What this is — and isn’t
This is a decision signal from real market behaviour. It is not causation, and not a KPI to “buy.” Re-validate brand definitions and lag structure periodically, document changes, and use 18–24 months of history for stability.
Read more on the blog
Methods note: How we build the Market Interest Index and test correlation (lead/lag, seasonality, sensitivity).
Case study: How the signal supported monthly planning and board reporting.
FAQ: Query hygiene, naming collisions, governance.
Next step
Create your own index. Bring your brands and markets; we’ll validate the monthly link to your STR metrics or revenue share and integrate the signal into planning and board reporting.