Hotels— Market Interest Moves First: Branded Search vs STR RGI (r=0.78)
Method note: Study shows a strong monthly association (r=0.78) between branded search interest and STR RevPAR Index.
Why this matters (for CFOs, CEOs, and Strategic BI)
Hotel leaders already rely on STR (CoStar) to see how they performed versus the comp set—after the month closes. What’s missing is a leading, external signal you can act on before the P&L. Monthly branded search behaviour provides that signal: it’s external, timely, and comparable across brands and markets.
For you, this means better:
Allocation: Put next month’s money where market interest is rising; pause where it’s flat.
Timing: Launch offers and rotate creative into tailwinds, not headwinds.
Forecasting: Set 1–3 month expectations by blending today’s market interest with seasonality.
Governance: Defend budgets with an external, auditable indicator—not opinions.
Risk oversight: Catch month-on-month declines early (competition, distribution, PR).
What we tested
We asked whether monthly movements in branded search interest track competitive performance in hotels.
Market Interest Index (monthly): a normalized 0–100 index built from branded Google searches.
Outcome (monthly): STR RevPAR Index (RGI) versus the comp set (also reviewed MPI and ARI where available).
Scope: Sweden, 2020–2022.
Method: Align monthly series and compute Pearson correlation; check 0–3 month lead/lag and light seasonality controls.
Findings
Strength: r(14) = 0.78 — a strong, statistically significant association.
Direction: When market interest rises, competitive revenue performance (RGI) tends to rise as well.
Timing: The association is strongest at 0–1 month lead, making the index practical for near-term planning.
Decisions this enables
Capital allocation: Reallocate next-month budgets toward cities/segments where interest is accelerating.
Timing & mix: Schedule offers and rotate creative into months showing rising interest; use plateaus to test price/pack or channel.
Comp-set strategy: Track whether interest gains convert into MPI/ARI/RGI improvements; adjust by city and segment.
Forecasting: Blend the current month’s index with seasonality to set expectations for the next 1–3 months.
Risk monitoring: MoM drops in branded interest can pre-signal competitive moves or distribution issues ahead of the monthly close.
Method in brief (hotels, monthly)
Define the brand universe (official name, variants, misspellings; exclude collisions).
Index branded search to a monthly 0–100 Market Interest Index.
Align to monthly STR metrics (RGI; also review MPI/ARI) or internal revenue/bookings share if STR isn’t available.
Quantify with Pearson r; sanity-check alternatives (YoY%, z-scores, Spearman) and 0–3 month lead/lag.
Operationalise on a monthly cadence with brief annotations (campaigns, pricing, distribution, competitor/PR).
What this is—and isn’t
This is a decision signal from real market behaviour. It is not causation, and not a KPI to “buy.” Re-validate definitions and lag structure quarterly, keep a change log, and use 18–24 months of history for stability.
Next step
Create your own index. We’ll define the queries, validate the monthly link to your STR metrics (or revenue/bookings share), and integrate the signal into planning and board reporting.
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