Rethinking Demand in an AI-Driven World
Writen by: Erich Joachimsthaler Ph.D.
Founder & CEO of VIVALDI | Author | Professor | Focused on: brand strategy, platform business, new technology, innovation
The Old Playbook
For years, marketing ran on a pretty straightforward formula: figure out your segments, map their needs, and target the right occasions. It made sense when people's habits were predictable, categories were stable and media was something you could plan around.
Think about the classics. Coca-Cola grew by owning dinnertime and family moments. P&G built entire brands around fixed needs: sensitive skin, whiter teeth, that sort of thing. Heineken went after social drinking occasions and age groups.
Back then, if you got your messaging right, and got lots of money for creating penetration, and brand salience (say: mental availability), you could shape what people preferred. And preference drove sales.
What Changed
That world doesn't exist anymore.
People now bounce between contexts all day long. Category does not exist except in the powerpoints of marketers. Culture shifts before marketers can even catch up. And purchase decisions? They happen in the blink of an eye.
But here's the bigger shift: AI now sits in the middle of everything. It interprets what people want, filters their options, and pushes recommendations before brands even get a say.
Look at how things actually work now. TikTok doesn't care about your target demographic: the algorithm just finds the right person for the content. Amazon recommends products based on your behavior patterns, not your age bracket. Spotify creates playlists for moods and activities like "deep focus" or "workout," not for "millennials." Uber considers your location, the time, the weather, your past rides—not some broad "occasion."
Traditional segments and occasions can't explain any of this.
How AI Reshapes Demand
Demand doesn't build through demographic groups and stated needs anymore. It forms in tiny episodes and moments where intent suddenly spikes and decisions get made in seconds.
Here's what actually matters now:
Episodes, not demographics. Demand happens in specific moments of action.
Intent spikes, not broad occasions. People need something right now, not during some generalized "usage occasion."
Jobs and tensions, not survey responses. People are trying to solve real problems or resolve specific tensions—it's not about checking boxes on a needs study.
Signals and behavior, not brand pyramids. AI reads patterns, repeatability, and value delivery. It doesn't care about your brand positioning chart.
The brands winning right now get this. e.l.f. Beauty dominates those moments when someone's scrolling and discovering products through creators. Starbucks owns your morning routine and that 3pm slump; not "coffee consumers." Tesla learns from every drive and charging session, constantly improving. L'Oréal's Beauty Genius shapes your skincare routine one episode at a time. Airbnb captured the job of "living like a local," not a traveler segment.
AI rewards brands that win the right episodes, deliver value exactly when it matters, and create what we call Moments of Value, in our latest AI report. These are those frictionless interactions that actually mean something.
Why We Need a New Framework
The traditional approach only explains demand as it exists today. It's backward-looking.
A future-oriented demand architecture explains how demand forms now and how it will form next. Here's what that looks like:
Culture: Where meaning comes from:
AI picks up on cultural codes and social signals. Your brand needs to stand for something unmistakable.Needs & Jobs: What people are actually solving for
Real jobs, tensions, and desired outcomes drive intent. Not generic "need states" from a focus group. This creates demand spaces that stay stable even when behavior keeps shifting.Behavior: Episodes and Moments of Value
Episodes are the real units of growth now. They drive choice far more than segments or occasions ever did. What are the moments of value for your brand?Economics: Portfolio and profitability
AI systems favor brands that deliver clarity, value, and performance. Economic Profit Loops, we call it, where you drive repeat behavior, reduce friction, and increase willingness to pay. They become your growth engine.
Your portfolio strategy needs to be about roles, value pools, and elasticity. Not just spinning out new flavors for different segments.Future: Anticipating where demand is headed from the future back
AI amplifies emerging demand faster than we can spot it ourselves. Future-back demand landscaping helps you build the portfolio the future will reward, not the one the past required.
Moving Beyond Old Questions
The traditional model answered: "Who should we target?"
But in an AI-mediated world, you need to ask: "Where does demand actually form? What job are we solving? Which episodes must we win? How do we shape future demand?" Demand is no longer just discovered through insights.
Future-back demand architecting gives you the structure, foresight, and economic rigor to compete in this new reality.
This is how brands grow now—through meaning, jobs, episodes, economics, and anticipating future demand. Not through segments, need states, and occasions.
Penetration without meaning does not build desire. It dilutes it.